Washington [US], July 16: The assassination of Donald Trump not only greatly affects the US presidential election in November, but also raises many concerns for this country.
Until yesterday, the world was still concerned about the assassination of former US President Donald Trump. This was the most serious political violence since the assassination in March 1981 of then US President Ronald Reagan. During the assassination, Mr. Reagan was shot but recovered and returned to work after 2 weeks.
Warning of increased political violence
In an analysis sent to Thanh Nien yesterday (July 15), Dr. Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group (USA) - the world's leading political risk research and consulting unit, warned that political tensions have increased in the US in recent years. He cited a recent survey showing that nearly 25% of Americans surveyed agreed that "patriots may have to resort to violence to save our country" and 75% of respondents believed that American democracy was in danger in the 2024 presidential election.
"In that context, with political extremism and misinformation being 'weaponized' through the media, especially social networks , the recent attempt to assassinate Trump has made the US mentally prepare to face more violence," Mr. Bremmer worried.
Calling Mr Trump's assassination a serious turning point in a deeply polarised country, Dr Bremmer warned: "This is the worst kind of event that can happen in that environment and I am deeply concerned that it portends more political violence and social unrest to come."
So the question going forward is: What can American political leaders do to help prevent future violence? And what will American democracy look like after this year's election?
How much advantage does Mr. Trump have?
Regarding how the assassination will affect the upcoming US election, Dr. Bremmer commented that the image of Mr. Trump raising his fist after being shot is "a symbol of the times" in the US today. Many experts believe that surviving the assassination in such a dramatic way can only help Trump in the election, because it creates a clear contrast with Mr. Joe Biden, who is said to be aging.
Looking back, after the 1981 shooting, Reagan's approval rating increased by 8 percentage points, reaching 70%. But the economic gloom dragged it down by more than 40 percentage points by the end of 1981. However, President Reagan still had 3 years to recover the US economy before the 1984 election, and the result was re-election.
Dr. Bremmer asked the question: "Can Mr. Trump turn the recent assassination into a more successful re-election?" In response to this question, the expert said that unlike former President Reagan, whose support declined after more than half a year, Mr. Trump only has to wait less than 4 months for the election. This is enough time to maintain the sympathy he gained after the assassination.
But how big that empathy is is another matter, Bremmer points out. "And of course, four months is a long time in today's news cycle ," he says. "The war Trump is fighting could look very different in the future."
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper